A Relief Rally, a Dead-Cat Bounce, or an Ephemeral Rise

Though Maryland born and bred, Josh Scheinker affects a SoCal zen, complete with what seems like a surfer-dude tan and coif. But the senior vice president of Janney Montgomery Scott’s Baltimore-based Scheinker Investment Partners admits that fear and loathing toward the fiscal cliff had shattered his calm. “My wife and kids,” Scheinker says, “were all wondering why my New Year’s was so stressful, why I was watching C-SPAN, and whether I needed to be in a white padded room.”

Scheinker, along with rest of Wall Street and global markets, celebrated Wednesday after Washington churned out a 13^th-hour deal to stave off $ 600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts. All manner of risk assets, including stocks and commodities, surged to start 2013, after the House’s 257-167 vote on the hastily cobbled-together deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor’s 500, and Nasdaq rallied an average of 2.65 percent. Europe and emerging markets rejoiced. Catastrophe avoided. At least mostly, for now.

Uncle Sam will permanently tax dividends and long-term capital gains at a 10 percent, 15 percent, or 20 percent rate, depending on a person’s or household’s overall income. Without this new certainty, the levy on dividends would have automatically jacked up to taxpayers’ ordinary income-tax rate. The bad news: Taxpayers with modified adjusted gross incomes of more than $ 200,000 for individuals and $ 250,000 for married joint filers will have to pay an additional 3.8 percent Affordable Care Act tax on their net investment income.

It’s a tricky grab for lawmakers on both sides of the partisan divide: How much and where, specifically, do you tax investors, who have been privy to a multiyear bull market in equities and fixed-income—an unavoidably attractive target for badly needed government revenue? How do you tap that source without choking off the undeniable wealth effect of a rising market? Love them or hate them, the top 20 percent of American income earners own about 90 percent of shares, a relationship that correlates disproportionately with retail sales, the health of which courses through the broader economy.

“Today the stock market has increasingly become the disciplining force in spurring action in Washington,” wrote Merrill Lynch economist Ethan Harris on Monday. “‘Stock market vigilantes’ have replaced ‘bond market vigilantes.’”

That’s a curious observation in light of how big a year markets had in the face of what was widely bandied as looming budgetary catastrophe. How urgently will lawmakers finish the substantial unfinished business of raising the country’s $ 16.4 trillion debt limit or deal with sequestration’s huge budget cuts if the market goes into panic mode?

For his part, Blackstone’s Byron Wien said the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will fall below 1,300 this year (from its current 1,456). He correctly called the S&P’s ascent last year above 1,400. Not once last year did the market have a single day when it was down for the year.

“The hard work,” says Janney Montgomery chief fixed-income strategist Guy LeBas, “is far from done. The cliff represented the confluence of opposing needs to reduce the long-term budget deficit and support short-term economic growth. Congress, in this instance, opted for the immediate benefits of the latter rather than the stability of the former. That decision delays what will inevitably be tougher decisions in the long run.”

“So, is this a relief rally, a dead-cat bounce, or just an ephemeral rise?” asks Scheinker, who says he plans to glue himself to C-SPAN again next month. “Do I feel comfortable here? No, not really. Does the market truly understand what deal was just signed off on? I am not too sure. I can tell you that my clients are very worried about the future of America.”

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London Market Report

31 December 2012 Last updated at 08:23 ET

Continue reading the main story
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(Close): London’s leading shares fell in Monday trading, amid fears that budget talks would not stop the US sliding over the “fiscal cliff”.

In a truncated New Year’s Eve session, the benchmark FTSE 100 index dropped by 0.47%, or 27.56 points, to 5,897.81.

However, the index still ended the year nearly 6% higher, having fallen by 5.6% during 2011.

Engineering firm Melrose Industries did worst on the day, down 3.5%. Capital Shopping Centres Group shed 2.1%.

Leading the day’s winners, B&Q owner Kingfisher bucked the downward trend with a rise of 0.8%.

The broader-based FTSE 250 index had an even better year, notching up record annual gains of 22%.

The 250-share index is seen as more representative of the British economy as a whole, since it contains a greater proportion of firms that are actually based in the UK.

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The Cliff Is Not a Credit-Rating Crisis

(Updates Dow Jones industrial average’s closing figure)

To quote the 1980s Soviet-dissing comedian Yakov Smirnoff: “What a Country!” That punch line seems terribly appropriate when you consider that America is uniquely positioned to explore true fiscal profligacy.

In August 2011, you’ll recall, amid the debt-ceiling debacle, Standard & Poor’s (MHP) did the unthinkable and downgraded the U.S. credit rating. Did the dollar collapse? Treasuries plunge? Bond vigilantes with pitchforks maraud down the corridors of Wall Street? Just the opposite: By dint of the dollar being the global reserve-currency of choice—and Treasuries being the ultimate redoubt of safety and liquidity—U.S. bond prices rose and yields fell while our printing presses went full-tilt. Risk on or risk off, creditors the world over can’t seem to get enough of American debt.

Now there’s a sequel to the debt ceiling drama: the Fiscal Cliff, a budgetary tragedy entirely of lawmakers’ creation.

So how will the credit-raters and debt markets react to this surreal state of affairs?

S&P put out a Dec. 28 bulletin, “Congressional Impasse On Fiscal Cliff Does Not Affect U.S. Sovereign Rating.” The ratings giant cited its 2011 downgrade language—when it called out “the political brinkmanship of recent months [that] highlights what we see as America’s governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective, and less predictable”—to reiterate that it “believes that this characterization still holds.”

But this time a political impasse means the deficit would be cut. “If lawmakers reach no agreement,” says S&P, “the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the government will receive additional revenue and will forgo additional expenses of upwards of $ 500 billion (3% of 2013 GDP) a year.”

As for Moody’s (MCO), the firm remarked on Dec. 27 that its “Aaa rating of the U.S. government is based on an assessment of very high economic strength, very high institutional strength, very high government financial strength, and low susceptibility to event risk. The rating carries a negative outlook, which was assigned primarily due to the rapid increase in federal government debt during the past five years and the uncertain debt trajectory in the medium term. … The statutory debt limit will be reached soon if Congress does not act to raise it. … Our view is that the probability of a missed interest payment on bonds resulting from a failure to raise the debt limit is extremely low.”

And then there’s Fitch Ratings. We’ll spare you the riveting boilerplate.

Point is, for all the Big Three’s codified importance to investors, not many seem seem to be waiting with bated breath for their reaction to what ultimately emerges from Washington’s cliff impasse. “S&P downgrading the U.S. last year was meaningless, because people don’t rely on S&P to tell them the credit quality of the U.S. government,” says Donald Steinbrugge, managing partner of Agecroft Partners, a broker-dealer that serves hedge funds. He says if Congress does not reach an agreement on the budget and the fiscal cliff is implemented, the markets will be the primary judge of the ripple effect on the broader economy and corporate profits. “This will result in a sell-off,” he says, “where the degree of decline will depend on how long investors believe the cliff will be in place.”

On the last day of the year, with an hour of trading left, no resolution from the Beltway, and the U.S. Treasury Department hitting up against its debt ceiling, the Dow Jones Industrial average rose 166 points.

Meantime, since the U.S. downgrades of 2011, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has returned a total of 23 percent (it has been up for the year every day of 2012); volatility, as measured by the VIX, has plunged; and government bonds have been in clover. In fact, the 10-year Treasury yield averaged 1.79 percent this year, its lowest yield since 1941.

Makes you wonder how badly America will fare—if and when its debt ever gets upgraded.

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Stock futures edge higher as “cliff” talks continue

(Reuters) – Equity futures were slightly higher on Sunday night as talks continued in Washington over resolving the “fiscal cliff.”

While the Senate will not vote Sunday night on any bill to avoid a series of $ 600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts, as many had hoped, negotiations continued between lawmakers and the White House.

The Senate will reconvene on Monday after the open of equity trading. In order for a deal to take effect, it would also have to be passed by the House of Representatives.

Despite the gain indicated by futures, stocks still could end up falling on Monday when the cash markets open if lawmakers are unable to come to an agreement to avoid the cliff, which many fear could push the economy into recession.

“There is always a chance for a massive stalemate, and we could see a lot more volatility if we get to a point where there’s no more hope. Right now there’s still hope,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of Sarhan Capital in New York.

Midnight on Monday marks the deadline for a deal, though the government can pass legislation in 2013 that retroactively prevents going over the cliff, an option that is viewed as politically easier.

“At some point, someone will have to blink, or Congress will just come in early in 2013 and vote for a tax cut,” Sarhan said. “Something will be done to resolve this.”

S&P 500 futures were up 5.4 points, or 0.4 percent, at 1,389 in electronic trading. Still, futures were about 7 points below the fair value level of 1,397.19. Fair value is a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Despite the rise, if futures remain below fair value, cash markets will open lower.

Dow and Nasdaq futures were also slightly higher, though below fair value.

Stocks fell sharply on Friday, with significant losses in the last minutes of trading, as prospects for a deal worsened at the beginning of the weekend.

The rise in the futures market does not necessarily augur for a rally on Monday, however. The cash market and futures markets closed with a wide gulf on Friday, by virtue of the extra 15 minutes of trading in futures.

The S&P 500 closed at 1,402.43 at 4 p.m. ET on Friday, down 1.1 percent, but futures continued to fall before closing 15 minutes later with a loss of 1.9 percent. S&P futures and the S&P cash index don’t match point-by-point, but that kind of disparity points to a weak opening in stocks on Monday.

One hour before they had hoped to present a plan on Sunday, Democratic and Republican Senate leaders said they were still unable to reach a compromise.

Earlier in the day, President Barack Obama, appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” said investors could begin to show greater concerns in the new year.

“If people start seeing that on January 1st this problem still hasn’t been solved … then obviously that’s going to have an adverse reaction in the markets,” he said,

Investors have remained relatively sanguine about the process, believing that it will eventually be solved. In the past two months markets have not shown the kind of volatility that was present during the fight to raise the debt ceiling in 2011.

The Dow industrials and the S&P 500 each lost 1.9 percent last week, after stocks fell for five straight sessions, which marked the S&P 500′s longest losing streak in three months. Equities have largely performed well in the last two months despite constant chatter about the fiscal cliff, but the last few days shows a bit of increased worry.

The CBOE Volatility Index <.vix> rose to its highest level since June on Friday, closing at 22.72.</.vix>

(Additional reporting by David Gaffen; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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Deal reached to avert U.S. port strike for now

(Reuters) – The union representing nearly 15,000 dockworkers at U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast seaports stretching from Boston to Corpus Christi, Texas, reached a tentative contract deal with shipping companies on Friday, averting a strike that threatened to wreak havoc on the U.S. economy.

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance clinched a deal in federally-mediated talks less than two days before a strike deadline set by the union to coincide with expiration of the contract on Sunday.

The threatened walkout would have brought container cargo operations to a halt at 15 ports along the Eastern seaboard and Gulf Coast, marking the first such work stoppage in 35 years. Friday’s announcement came hours after the White House urged the parties to settle their dispute.

Under Friday’s deal, the two sides agreed to extend the terms of their expiring labor pact for 30 more days while negotiators finalize details of their settlement, the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service said in a statement.

The breakthrough came as the parties agreed “in principle” on the contentious issue of “container royalties,” or bonus payments earned by ILA dockworkers based on the tonnage of cargo moved through their respective ports.

The new contract does not eliminate the royalty payments, as the shippers had demanded, according to Benny Holland, an executive vice president for the ILA.

“The royalty will stay intact. We have worked out a formula for it,” he said in an interview. He did not elaborate and the shippers declined to comment. No further details were disclosed in the government’s statement.

LONG-TERM AGREEMENT AWAITED

Established in 1960, the royalty payments to ILA workers are based on the tons of container cargo that move through a port. That tonnage has risen from 50 million tons in 1996 to 110 million tons last year, according to the alliance.

Total payments last year were $ 211 million, according to the USMX, or an average of $ 15,500 per worker.

The original idea of the royalty payments was to protect longshoremen from wage losses expected as a result of “containerization,” in which more and more goods are packed in the now-familiar 20- and 40-foot long boxes. Those take less manpower to offload than the less-standardized containers they replaced.

The two sides also fought over the guaranteed eight-hour workday in the current contract as well as the seven-man “lashing gang.” Lashing crews, or gangs, secure the cargo containers to the vessel using metal lashing rods to keep them from moving while the vessel is at sea. The maritime alliance wanted to eliminate each.

A new long-term agreement has an 80 percent chance of happening by January 28, Capital Alpha Partners analyst Loren Smith said in a research note.

The temporary agreement comes as labor forces felt emboldened by recent victories by other unions across the United States. At the same time, shipping companies and port operators have been using more automation, but have seen profits shrink.

The Baltic Dry index, which tracks the cost to ship materials overseas, is down 55 percent in the past year and currently trading at levels it has not seen in a decade.

(Additional reporting by Kevin Gray in Miami and Steve Gorman in Los Angeles, editing by Mary Milliken; desking by G Crosse)

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SeaWorld Hopes For an IPO Splash

Shamu may have new masters. The private equity firm Blackstone today filed to take SeaWorld public at an undisclosed date. Blackstone (BX)  bought the amusement parks in late 2009 for $ 2.7 billion from Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD). At the time, the amusement parks weren’t profitable—they lost $ 58 million in December 2009 alone—but they’ve made money since: In 2011 net income was $ 19 million, and in the first nine months of 2012 it was $ 86 million.

SeaWorld Entertainment runs 11 parks under several different brands: SeaWorld, Busch Gardens, Aquatica, and Sesame Place. It also runs Discovery Cove, a park next to the SeaWorld in Orlando that offers luxury cabanas and the ability to swim with dolphins and limits admission to no more than 1,300 people a day. More than half the company’s revenue comes from parks in Florida, several of which are in the theme park mecca, Orlando. In an attempt at the quantification of fun, the IPO filing says the parks combined have 93 animal attractions (Hello, Shamu), 193 rides (lazy rivers, anyone?), 113 shows, 49 play areas (like Halloween mazes), 38 limited-time events, and 113 “distinctive experiences,” such as feeding penguins.

SeaWorld’s filing makes clear what anyone who’s ever purchased an outrageously priced amusement park soda already knows—the real profit comes from food and merchandise. In the nine months through September, SeaWorld spent just $ 99 million on food and goods that brought in $ 445 million in revenue. Compare that with the $ 560 million it cost to operate the parks, which brought in $ 716 million in ticket sales. The average customer spent $ 22.39 on “in-park” spending, the filing says. That’s on top of the nearly $ 35 the average person spent on admission.

The filing points out some unique risk factors. Blackstone will keep a controlling share in SeaWorld, which could lead to a conflict of interest, because Blackstone also owns a “substantial stake” in the company that owns Legoland theme parks. And then there are the animals. They are susceptible to infectious diseases, the filing says, and dangers lurk in their interactions with humans, too. “Injuries or death, while rare, have occurred in the past and may occur in the future,” it says. So Shamu and his buddies are both assets and liabilities.

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Taking on Guns and the NRA, One Tweet at a Time

(Updates the number of video views, petition signatures, and twitter impressions)

On Dec. 21, a group of A-list Hollywood celebrities, including Jon Hamm, Reese Witherspoon, Jamie Foxx, and Beyoncé, posted an 80-second, black-and-white video clip on YouTube calling for lawmakers to develop a comprehensive plan to deal with gun violence. The clip, uploaded the same day the National Rifle Association held a press conference calling for armed guards in schools and no new restrictions on guns, has been viewed 4 million times.

The public service announcement is well-produced and hits all the intended emotional chords as it reminds viewers of mass shootings from Columbine to Newtown. It’s is part of a broader “Demand a Plan” social media campaign by the advocacy group Mayors Against Illegal Guns that was launched right after the Newtown massacre. (The group is co-chaired by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg L.P., which owns Bloomberg Businessweek.) The video also raises an intriguing question: Can social media strategies somehow level the playing field with the NRA, a laser-focused, well-financed, and successful lobbying group with four million members?

John Feinblatt, who oversees MAIG and is a chief policy adviser to the mayor, is ready to go on the offensive with the NRA and thinks the moment has arrived for the gun safety movement  to make legislative advances. He says there is “enormous pent up frustration because Americans want to be safe.” Facebook (FB), Twitter, and YouTube (GOOG) can effectively focus that raw energy on Congress and President Barack Obama to get things moving and undercut the NRA’s clout in Washington. “What people want is to be heard and you have to give them that vehicle,” says Feinblatt.

The Demand a Plan site delivers that video testimonials of 30-plus survivors and victims’ family members and all manner of online tools to mobilize support and donations to pressure the White House and Congress. Some 600,000 users have signed an online petition to ban assault weapons and high capacity magazines, require criminal background checks on every gun sold in the U.S., and crack down on arms trafficking. The Demand a Plan campaign has generated 10 million tweet impressions since its launch on Dec. 17, according to Feinblatt. This chart of Google search results for “gun control” shows interest spiking far higher after Newtown, compared with responses to other shooting incidents, going back to 2005.

Yet it’s worth asking if a “Twitter Revolution,” to borrow from the Arab Spring lexicon, can change the U.S. gun policy debate over the long haul? Social media is a great technology for disseminating information, organizing protests, and expressing spontaneous emotion—but it is unclear how effective it might be in a prolonged legislative battle to sway, cajole, and basically electorally threaten lawmakers beholden to the NRA and gun industry money.

“Signing an online petition is easy, but getting the continuing electoral and financial support of millions is difficult,” says Harry Wilson,  a gun industry expert and a public policy professor at Roanoke College in Virginia. “If gun control groups, including MAIG, are not significantly emboldened and empowered by the Newtown tragedy, then they have lost the battle.”

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Monti urges debate on Italy election as rivals open fire

ROME (Reuters) – Outgoing Prime Minister Mario Monti posted his reform agenda online on Monday, urging Italians to join a debate on their country’s future as potentially bitter election campaign gets underway two months before Italy goes to polls.

Following weeks of hesitation, Monti declared his availability on Sunday to lead a reform-minded centrist alliance to seek a second term to complete the economic reform program begun when he took office just over a year ago.

The former European Commissioner, appointed at the head of a technocrat government to save Italy from financial crisis, has now thrown off his mantle of neutrality and entered a race that will be dominated by his tough reform agenda.

Even if he confirms his entry into the campaign, Monti appears unlikely at this stage to return to office but his involvement could strengthen a centrist alliance and help shape the agenda of the next government.

The center-left Democratic Party (PD), which has pledged to maintain Monti’s broad reform course while giving more help to workers and pensioners and emphasizing growth more, is favored to win but may have to strike a coalition deal with the center.

In an open letter to Italians posted online and accompanied by a 25-page policy program, Monti said he hoped that the agenda would lead to an “open reflection” that would help shape the debate ahead of the election on February 24-25.

He urged a mix of budget rigor and structural reform as well as measures to crack down on corruption and get more women and young people to work.

However the tone of the campaign has inevitably moved away from calm debate and into the murky and sometimes treacherous territory of Italian party politics, where Monti is a novice.

GLOVES COME OFF

At a news conference on Sunday, he attacked left-wing trade unions for resisting reform but reserved special criticism for his scandal-plagued predecessor Silvio Berlusconi, whom he picked on repeatedly for his “bewildering” changes of position.

Speaking to one of his own television channels, the 76 year-old media billionaire responded by saying it would be “immoral” for Monti to fight the election after governing as an unelected premier with the support of the main parties.

One of Berlusconi’s chief lieutenants, Fabrizio Cicchitto, parliamentary floor leader of his People of Freedom (PDL) party, indicated that Monti’s international standing and the respect he enjoys among Italy’s European partners would count for little.

“He’s taken aim at the PDL, which obviously has no choice but to respond in kind,” he said.

Monti, a Life Senator who does not need to stand for election to parliament, has not said exactly what forces he could support but the centrist parties he has been linked with greeted his announcement with great enthusiasm.

“We’re not forcing Monti but obviously if it happens, the value it adds to our project will be enormous,” Pierferdinando Casini, head of the centrist UDC party, which is close to the Catholic church, told the daily La Repubblica.

A small number of centrists from both the two main parties, including former Foreign Minister Franco Frattini announced they were leaving their parties and would support Monti, whose reform agenda is strongly backed by Italy’s business establishment.

However the centrist group lags both the center-left Democratic Party (PD) and the PDL as well as the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement in opinion polls and without Monti, it has little chance of making any significant gains.

Even with the respected economics professor at its head, a centrist alliance including the UDC and other smaller parties including a new group created by Ferrari chairman Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, appears likely to struggle to pass 15 percent.

(Reporting By James Mackenzie; Editing by Jon Boyle)

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Retailers facing ‘critical’ time

23 December 2012 Last updated at 19:14 ET

Nearly 140 retailers are in a “critical condition” despite Christmas being their peak trading time, business recovery firm Begbies Traynor has said.

Its UK business solvency survey found 13,700 more firms were in distress, a 35% rise in the quarter to December.

It said many could struggle to meet their quarterly rent payment, due on Christmas Day.

Begbies Traynor has predicted a rise in the number of both national and regional retail insolvencies in 2013.

The report suggested the worst affected retailers include specialists in books, news and stationery, where distress signals were 85% higher on the previous quarter.

Online retailers, supermarkets and shops selling decor and household goods have meanwhile, seen sales figures improve.

Traders of furniture, lighting, home decorations, hardware and paints have seen a combined 13% fall in distress levels in the last three months, as homeowners decide to “improve, not move”.

‘Window shopping”

Julie Palmer, partner at the company, said many consumers were browsing in high street stores before finding the product they want for a better price on the internet.

“While book sales usually peak in the run up to Christmas, the move by consumers to use traditional book retailers simply for window shopping before purchasing online at discount prices has seriously impacted this sector, which has already suffered considerably from the growing popularity of e-book readers,” she said.

Pharmacies, personal care outlets, and off-licences have also seen their distress signals rise.

Begbies Traynor said this was thanks to consumers being more careful with what they spent their money on.

The latest high-profile high street casualty was electrical chain Comet, which closed all its 236 stores this month.

Ms Palmer added: “Though the performance of national retailers is well documented, it represents just the tip of the iceberg with thousands of smaller and specialist retailers struggling to stay afloat in today’s austerity Britain.

She said that some may survive, thanks to last-minute Christmas shopping, but that others would be hit by the quarterly rent day, which falls on Christmas Day, as well as fierce competition and pressure to keep profit margins low.

The predicts a number of national or regional retail chains could fail in the next 12 months.

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Obama starts Hawaiian vacation, leaving Washington on ice

KAILUA, Hawaii (Reuters) – Taking what promised to be a very brief Christmas break from the ongoing struggle to avoid the “fiscal cliff” of tax hikes and spending cuts, President Barack Obama relaxed with his family on Saturday at a beach retreat in Hawaii.

Congress was to return to Washington next Thursday and Obama has pledged to work with lawmakers to strike a deal to avoid the economic shock from tax and spending measures set to take effect on January 1 if a deal can’t be reached, which many economists say could push the U.S. economy back into recession.

The president is expected to indulge in some of his favorite pastimes on the island where he was born and raised: golf, an expedition for the local treat “shave ice,” and an evening out with family and friends. He hit the links at the nearby Marine Corps base under sunny skies on Saturday afternoon.

On Sunday, he is expected to attend funeral services for Senator Daniel Inouye, the long-serving Democrat from Hawaii who died on Monday, but the president has no other public events on his schedule.

On Saturday, Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he had urged Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie, a Democrat, to name Inouye’s successor “with due haste.”

“It is critically important to ensure that the people of Hawaii are fully represented in the pivotal decisions the Senate will be making before the end of the year,” Reid, of Nevada, said in a statement.

Obama’s idyll was not expected to last more than four days, and he will likely retrace the more than 4,800-mile trip from the Aloha State to Washington after Christmas in a bid to cut a deal with Republicans, who failed on Thursday to agree on competing tax and spending bills of their own.

Before leaving Washington on Friday evening, Obama urged Congress to come up with a stopgap measure to spare the U.S. economy the jolt of $ 600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts economists say would likely derail the economy.

The president asked lawmakers for a stripped-down deal to continue lower tax rates on middle income earners and extend unemployment insurance benefits to avoid some of the worst effects of the “fiscal cliff” in the new year.

Obama’s family holiday, in a quiet beach front community on the other side of the island from bustling Honolulu, should also provide some respite from the somber focus on the Newtown, Connecticut, school massacre and the consequent bitter debate over measures to change America’s gun culture and prevent violence.

The president’s weekly radio and Internet addresses, which in recent weeks have centered on his argument for extending tax cuts for all but the wealthiest Americans, on Saturday offered holiday greetings to U.S. military forces.

(Reporting By Mark Felsenthal and Richard Cowan; Editing by Vicki Allen, Todd Eastham and Paul Simao)

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Scenarios: Seven ways the US ‘fiscal cliff’ crisis could end

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – So what now?

The U.S. House of Representatives‘ rejection of a bill to raise taxes on just 0.18 percent of Americans – those making more than $ 1 million a year – has raised questions about the Republican-led chamber’s ability to approve any plan to avert the looming “fiscal cliff.”

Unless President Barack Obama and the U.S. Congress can forge a deal during the Christmas and New Year’s holiday season, the largest economy in the world could be thrust back into a recession because of the steep tax increases and spending cuts that are due to begin in January.

The threat of across-the-board government spending cuts and tax increases – about $ 600 billion worth – was intended to shock the Democratic-led White House and Senate and the Republican-led House into moving past their many differences to approve a plan that would bring tax relief to most Americans and curb runaway federal spending.

For weeks, Obama and House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, have struggled to find a compromise.

But after a glimmer of hope that a deal was close early this week, Boehner – apparently under pressure from anti-tax House Republicans aligned with the conservative Tea Party movement – pressed the “pause” button on negotiations. He then tried to push a backup plan through the House late on Thursday, only to see his fellow Republicans kill it.

Where do Obama and Congress go from here? Here are some possible scenarios.

* Obama and Boehner go back into their secret negotiations.

Before Boehner started touting his failed “Plan B” to boost taxes on those who make more than $ 1 million, he and Obama were moving closer together on a plan to raise taxes on certain high-income Americans and cut spending. They could pick up where they left off and quickly cut a deal to bridge the gap.

But a compromise with possibly $ 1 trillion in new taxes and $ 1 trillion in new, long-term spending cuts could be a tough sell for both Republicans and Democrats in Congress.

Boehner would have to persuade enough Republicans on the idea of tax increases. Obama, meanwhile, would have to get Democrats in Congress to back cuts to some social safety net programs such as Social Security pensions and Medicare and Medicaid health insurance for the elderly and poor. House Republicans appear to be the tougher sell.

* A huge drop in the stock market sends a loud message to Washington politicians to stop arguing and cut a quick but meaningful deal.

That is what happened in late September 2008, after Congress rejected a massive financial bailout package despite warnings by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson of an economic collapse if the bill failed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 700 points and Congress quickly reversed course, approving the $ 700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program just days later.

The “fiscal cliff” may not be as dramatic a situation, but the tax increases and cuts in federal spending could deal a stiff blow to the economy.

* No deal happens in the dwindling days of 2012 and the U.S. government jumps off the fiscal cliff – at least temporarily.

On January 1, income taxes would go up on just about everyone. During the first week of January, Congress could scramble and get a quick deal on taxes and the $ 109 billion in automatic spending cuts that most lawmakers want to avoid.

Why could they reach a deal in January if they fail in December?

The reason would be that once taxes go up, it would be easier to allow a few of those increases to remain in place – mostly on the wealthy – and repeal those that would hit middle- and lower-income taxpayers.

Such a scenario would mean that no member of Congress technically would have to vote for a tax increase on anyone – taxes would have risen automatically – and the only votes would be to decrease tax rates for most Americans back to their 2012 levels.

* No deal occurs for another six weeks or so.

If Congress does not raise the nation’s debt limit, by mid-February the Treasury Department likely would exhaust its ability to borrow. That would put the nation at risk of defaulting on its debt.

Republicans have withheld their approval of the debt-limit increase as leverage to try to get the kind of “fiscal cliff” solution they want: Fewer increases in spending and taxes, and more cuts to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

This is the strategy they employed in mid-2011 during the last fight over the debt limit, which is about $ 16.4 trillion.

Republicans wrung spending cuts out of Democrats in return for new borrowing authority, but paid a political price. Global financial markets were rocked by the long uncertainty brought on by the standoff in Congress, one ratings agency downgraded U.S. credit standing and Republicans saw their public approval ratings sink.

* Boehner decides on a gutsy move: Call a House vote on a bill that would raise tax rates for families with net annual incomes above $ 250,000, exactly what Obama has sought.

The plan could pass the House with strong Democratic support and some Republican votes. As soon as it passed, the House likely would leave town for the rest of the year without addressing other Obama priorities such as increasing the government’s debt limit.

* A partial deal is struck at any point.

Congress could pass a plan that would put off most of the income tax increases that are due in January, or extend some other expiring tax breaks – namely one to prevent middle-class taxpayers from being subject to higher tax rates aimed at the wealthy under the alternative minimum tax.

* Stock markets do not tank and Washington politicians conclude that the “fiscal cliff” is not such a bad thing.

Under this scenario, Congress and the White House could continue sniping at each other throughout 2013 and 2014 as they try to revamp tax policy and impose long-term spending cuts.

(Editing by David Lindsey and Will Dunham)

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House GOP puts off vote on ‘Plan B’

WASHINGTON (AP) — Confronted with a revolt among the rank and file, House Republicans abruptly put off a vote Thursday night on legislation allowing tax rates to rise for households earning $ 1 million and up, complicating attempts to avoid a year-end fiscal cliff that threatens to send the economy into recession.

In a brief statement, House Speaker John Boehner said the bill “did not have sufficient support from our members to pass.” At the same time he challenged President Barack Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., to work on legislation to avert the fiscal cliff.

“The Senate must now act,” he said.

Emerging from a hurriedly-called evening meeting of House Republicans, Ohio Rep. Steve LaTourette said Boehner had told lawmakers, “He’s going to call the president and he’s going to go down and talk to him and maybe they can hammer something out.”

There was no immediate response from either the White House or Reid’s office.

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U.S. “fiscal cliff” talks turn sour, Obama threatens veto

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Talks to avoid a U.S. fiscal crisis stalled on Wednesday as President Barack Obama accused opponents of holding a personal grudge against him while the top Republican negotiator called the president “irrational.”

As a year-end deadline nears, Obama and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner are locked in intense bargaining over a possible deal to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff of harsh tax hikes and automatic spending cuts that could badly damage an already weak economy.

Obama said he was puzzled over what was holding up the talks and told Boehner‘s Republicans to stop worrying about scoring “a point against the president” or forcing him into concessions “just for the heck of it.”

“It is very hard for them to say yes to me,” he told a news conference in the White House. “At some point, you know, they’ve got to take me out of it.”

The rise in tensions threatens to unravel significant progress made over the last week.

Boehner and Obama have each offered substantial concessions that have made a deal look within reach. Obama has agreed to cuts in benefits for seniors, while Boehner has conceded to Obama’s demand that taxes rise for the richest Americans.

However, the climate of goodwill has evaporated since Republicans announced plans on Tuesday to put an alternative tax plan to a vote in the House this week that would largely disregard the progress made so far in negotiations.

On Wednesday, Obama threatened to veto the Republican measure, known as “Plan B,” if Congress approved it.

Boehner’s office slammed Obama for opposing their plan, which would raise taxes on households making more than $ 1 million a year and is a concession from longstanding Republican opposition to increasing any tax rates.

“The White House’s opposition to a backup plan … is growing more bizarre and irrational by the day,” Boehner said through his spokesman, Brendan Buck.

Boehner expressed confidence the House would pass the legislation on Thursday. He urged Obama to “get serious” about a balanced deficit reduction plan.

Wall Street is on edge over the fiscal cliff talks although investors still expect a deal. The S&P 500 stock index slipped 0.76 percent on Wednesday.

Business leaders have descended on Washington to lobby for a deal to avoid going over the cliff while putting public finances on a more sustainable path. Without an agreement to narrow deficits over the long run, the United States could eventually lose investors’ trust, triggering a debt crisis.

An acrimonious presidential campaign that culminated in Obama’s re-election on November 6 has added to the bad blood in Washington between Obama and congressional Republicans.

The two sides also clashed bitterly last year over the government’s limit on borrowing – known as the debt ceiling – an episode that nearly led the nation to default on its debt.

On Wednesday, Obama said the fiscal cliff must not get bogged down with negotiations over the debt ceiling, an issue that must be dealt with again early next year.

But Boehner’s offer to raise the debt ceiling enough for another year of borrowing is facing opposition from a large group of Republicans, a House Republican aide said.

LITMUS TEST

Any fiscal cliff agreement by Obama and the Republican leadership would need the support of their parties’ rank and file in Congress, and Thursday’s vote on Plan B will be a test of Boehner’s ability to deliver votes on any eventual deal.

Boehner faces opposition from Republican Tea Party conservatives over his concession to raise tax rates. But in a sign some conservatives are coming around to Boehner’s position, anti-tax activist Grover Norquist gave his blessing to the bill.

Other conservative groups, including the influential Club for Growth, are urging Republicans to vote against Plan B.

Obama and Boehner appear to have bridged their biggest ideological differences but remain hung up on the mix of tax hikes and spending cuts meant to narrow the budget gap.

“What separates us is probably a few hundred billion dollars,” Obama said.

The White House wants taxes to rise on household incomes above $ 400,000 a year, a concession from Obama’s opening proposal for a $ 250,000 income threshold.

If a deal is not reached soon, some $ 600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts are set to begin next month.

Senior administration officials described negotiations as at a standstill and Obama warned he would ask everyone involved in the talks, “what it is that’s holding it up?”

Still, the top Republican in the Senate said a resolution to the stalemate could come by the end of the week.

“There’s still enough time for us to finish all of our work before this weekend, if we’re all willing to stay late and work hard,” said Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell.

Many Democrats dislike the president’s offer to reduce benefits to seniors, although some political allies of Obama have given signs they feel they could swallow this concession.

“I don’t like these particular changes,” said Democratic Representative Chris Van Hollen, a member of the House leadership from Maryland. But he added: “What people are seeing is the president willing to compromise in order to get things done.”

(Additional reporting by Roberta Rampton, Thomas Ferraro and Vicki Allen; Kim Dixon and Richard Cowan; Writing by Jason Lange; Editing by Alistair Bell and Eric Beech)

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Cliff talks hit a lull with Boehner’s ‘Plan B’

WASHINGTON (AP) — Just two weeks from an economy-threatening deadline, fiscal cliff talks hit a lull Tuesday as House Speaker John Boehner announced that Republicans would also march ahead with their own tax plan on a separate track from the one he’s been pursuing with President Barack Obama.

The White House and leading congressional Democrats immediately rejected Boehner‘s “Plan B,” which would extend soon-to-expire Bush-era tax cuts for everyone making less than $ 1 million but would not address huge across-the-board spending cuts that are set to strike the Pentagon and domestic programs next year.

“Everyone should understand Boehner‘s proposal will not pass the Senate,” said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.

Boehner’s surprise move came after significant progress over the past several days in talks with Obama — talks that produced movement on tax rate hikes that have proven deeply unsettling to GOP conservatives and on cuts to Social Security benefits that have incensed liberal Democrats.

Just Monday, Obama offered concessions, including a plan to raise top tax rates on households earning more than $ 400,000 instead of the $ 250,000 threshold he had campaigned on. And the two sides had inched closer on the total amount of tax revenue required to seal the agreement. Obama now would settle for $ 1.2 trillion over the coming decade while Boehner is offering $ 1 trillion.

By contrast, protecting income below $ 1 million from a hike in the top tax rate from 35 percent to 39.6 percent would raise only $ 269 billion over the coming decade.

But the outlines of a possible Obama-Boehner agreement appeared to have shaky support at best from Boehner’s leadership team and outright opposition from key Republicans like vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, R-Wis., a House GOP aide said. That aide spoke only on condition of anonymity because the aide was not authorized to discuss the situation publicly.

Though Obama spokesman Jay Carney had nothing good to say about Boehner‘s new option, he said, “The president is willing to continue to work with Republicans” toward a broader agreement.

The narrower Plan B faced plenty of opposition. Democrats announced they would oppose it, and many conservative Republicans continued to resist any vote that might be interpreted as raising taxes. Republicans were refining the measure Tuesday in hopes of building support among the GOP rank and file, but passing the measure exclusively with GOP votes could prove difficult.

“I think it’s a terrible idea,” said Rep. Raul Labrador, R-Idaho. “For a lot of reasons.”

Republicans noted that top Democrats like Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi of California and Sen. Charles Schumer of New York have in the recent past supported the million-dollar threshold for rates hikes. “We’ve had an election on the President’s tax plan, the President won, and Republicans can’t turn the clock back,” said Schumer spokesman Brian Fallon.

Boehner’s back-up plan would extend current income tax rates except for income exceeding $ 1 million, set a 20 percent tax rate on capital gains and dividend income for income over $ 1 million instead of 15 percent now, and retain current rules regarding the estate tax instead of tighter parameters sought by Obama.

It would also prevent an expansion of the alternative minimum tax that would otherwise hit 28 million middle- and upper-class Americans with an average $ 3,700 increase on their 2012 tax returns.

Several rank-and-file House Republicans said the message they heard at an evening caucus was that passing plan B would strengthen Boehner’s hand in negotiating steeper spending cuts with Obama.

If the Senate decides not to vote on the House bill or ignores it, “That’s not our problem,” said Rep. Patrick Tiberi, R-Ohio. “The ball’s in Harry Reid’s court.”

Democrats said Boehner’s move made it clear he was abandoning efforts to reach an agreement with Obama — much as he quit talks with Obama 18 months ago.

“Plan B is yet another example of House Republicans walking away from negotiations,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., top Democrat on the Budget Committee.

At the White House, officials remained cautiously optimistic that the talks could get back on track despite Boehner’s maneuvering.

Boehner, however, said Obama is the one proving to be too inflexible, even as he held out hope that talks with Obama might yet bear fruit.

“He talked about a ‘balanced’ approach on the campaign trail,” Boehner said. “What the White House offered yesterday — $ 1.3 trillion in revenue for only $ 850 billion in spending cuts — cannot be considered balanced.”

Boehner also displayed new flexibility on the politically explosive issue of raising the Medicare retirement age from 65 to 67. Boehner said the idea — anathema to Democrats — didn’t need to be dealt with this year but could be kicked over into a broader negotiation next year.

“That issue has been on the table, off the table, back on the table,” Boehner said. “I don’t believe it’s an issue that has to be dealt with between now and the end of the year.”

Just Monday, the Capitol bristled with optimism that Boehner and Obama might strike a bargain.

In a new offer, Obama dropped his long-held insistence that taxes rise on individuals earning more than $ 200,000 and families making more than $ 250,000. He is now offering a new threshold of $ 400,000 and lowering his 10-year tax revenue goals from the $ 1.6 trillion he originally sought.

The new Obama plan seeks $ 1.2 trillion in revenue over 10 years and $ 1.2 trillion in 10-year spending reductions. Boehner aides say the revenue is closer to $ 1.3 trillion if revenue triggered by a new inflation index is counted, and they say the spending reductions are closer to $ 930 billion if one discounts about $ 290 billion in lower estimated debt interest.

The two sides also differ on the estate tax, extending unemployment benefits and how to address the need to raise the government’s borrowing cap to prevent a first-ever U.S. default and a re-run of last year’s debt crisis.

The White House was facing its own backlash, with labor, liberal and elderly advocacy groups mounting an organized campaign against any adjustments in cost-of-living for Social Security beneficiaries.

“President Obama and other Democrats campaigned saying Social Security doesn’t affect the deficit,” said Roger Hickey, co-director of the liberal Campaign for America’s Future. “Social Security recipients are going to notice and they are either going to blame John Boehner or President Obama.”

The change would reduce annual cost-of-living increases for beneficiaries of Social Security and other government programs. It also would push more people into higher tax brackets by making smaller annual adjustments to brackets.

The administration appeared confident that most Democrats would reluctantly vote for the idea in an attractive enough budget package, particularly one that has the backing of Obama.

“I think many of us still have faith that the president will ultimately, if he strikes a deal with the Republicans, give us a plan that we can vote on that provides that fairness and balance,” said Rep. Xavier Becerra, D-Calif.

White House spokesman Carney described the inclusion of the inflation adjustment as “a technical change” that was “not directed at one particular program.” He also said that if instituted, the administration would ensure that the most vulnerable beneficiaries would not be affected.

___

Associated Press writers Alan Fram, Jim Kuhnhenn and Donna Cassata contributed to this report.

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Comet collapse to cost UK £49m

17 December 2012 Last updated at 15:35 ET

The collapse of electrical chain Comet will cost the government £49.4m in redundancy payments and tax revenues, administrators Deloitte have revealed.

The redundancy money owed to thousands of former Comet workers totals £23.2m, and will be paid by the government’s Redundancy Payments Service (RPS).

Meanwhile, £26.2m is owed in taxes to HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC).

The last 49 Comet stores will close on Tuesday. Comet went into administration last month.

Big losses

Comet’s demise is one of the biggest High Street casualties of recent years.

The 236-store business, which at the time employed about 7,000 people, was bought last year for the nominal sum of £1 by private equity firm OpCapita.

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Founded in 1933 as a business charging radio batteries.

Opened its first store in Hull in 1968.

Bought by Woolworths and B&Q owner Kingfisher in 1984, which expanded Comet into one of the UK’s best-known retail brands.

In 2003 Comet became part of Kesa Electricals, after Kesa was demerged from Kingfisher.

It was announced in November 2011 that Comet would be sold to private equity group OpCapita for just £1.

OpCapita was also given £50m by Kesa as part of the deal.

OpCapita bought the Comet from Kesa Electrical, which also gave OpCapita £46.8m of working capital.

However, OpCapita failed to turnaround Comet’s fortunes, as the company continued to suffer from the fall in UK consumer spending during the recession, and the big growth in online rivals.

Comet was founded in Hull in 1933 and began life selling batteries and radios.

The closure of the final Comet’s stores comes after Deloitte failed to find a buyer for the company.

Deloitte also revealed on Monday that Comet’s losses in the year to April totalled £95m, while its revenues slumped by £200m.

In the subsequent five months, Comet lost a further £31m.

Kesa Electricals was renamed Darty in July this year.

Despite having its headquarters in London, it focuses on the continental market – especially France, where it has more than 200 stores under the Darty name.

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Samsung and Apple Duel in Enterprise Tech

Last summer, health-care startup Preventice asked Samsung Electronics if it would create a custom version of its popular Galaxy S II phone. Preventice was putting the finishing touches on a product that used a smartphone to transmit data from a patient’s heart monitor to a doctor, and it needed Samsung to disable downloads, which might interfere with a cellular connection. In less than six weeks Samsung made the necessary changes and agreed to pick up roughly $ 40,000 in engineering costs. “I saw a huge company with huge resources move very quickly,” says Preventice Chief Executive Officer Jon Otterstatter. “Samsung was very aggressive.”

Samsung’s mobile-electronics empire was built mostly on consumers. Now it’s making its first big push to woo companies. This so-called enterprise market includes companies that distribute smartphones and tablets to employees, who use them for checking e-mail and tasks such as tracking sales, as well as companies like Preventice that want to resell the devices as part of their own products. “We’ve made the decision to be No. 1 in enterprise,” says Timothy Wagner, who runs the Texas-based Samsung unit that’s leading the effort.

Few think that’s likely to happen unless Apple (AAPL), which has already made a strong move into the enterprise market, slips up. Thanks to the popularity of the iPhone and iPad with professionals, Apple passed fast-fading Research In Motion (RIMM) to become the top seller of company-issued smartphones this year and will remain in that position at least through 2016, says IDC analyst Stacy Crook. With its small number of products and carefully policed App Store, Apple has made itself safe in the eyes of chief information officers. In its last quarter earnings call on Oct. 25, CEO Tim Cook said more than 80 percent of large companies are at least testing iPhones and iPads for employee use.

Still, Samsung does have an opportunity. While Wagner is aware how difficult it will be to get businesspeople to ditch their iPhones, he says there’s plenty of new business to be had from companies that need something beyond Apple’s one-size-fits-all formula. Apple doesn’t customize its products for anyone, or partner with third-party software makers to target specific industries. Samsung will, Wagner says. “We’re in a unique position to take advantage of an opening that’s being left there by one of our competitors,” he says. Apple spokesperson Natalie Harrison declined to comment on the company’s enterprise business.

IDC’s Crook says the timing of Samsung’s offensive will allow the company to take advantage of BlackBerry’s problems (according to IDC, RIM’s global smartphone market share has dropped from 19.9 percent in 2009 to 4.7 percent this year). Microsoft (MSFT), she notes, has yet to make inroads with its Windows Phone 8 software, introduced in October.

Samsung, which dominates the booming market for devices built on Google’s (GOOG) Android operating system, also could distance itself from other Android rivals in the enterprise market. Its push comes as HTC is struggling and Google focuses elsewhere. In early December, Google closed what was left of 3LM, a mobile enterprise software maker that was acquired by Motorola Mobility in 2011, months before Google bought Motorola. “The fact that Google is shuttering 3LM shows that they’re very focused on the consumer space—but they’re not realizing that consumer devices are being used in enterprise,” says Chris Hazelton, an analyst with 451 Research. “It seems incredibly shortsighted.” Google declined to comment.

Part of Wagner’s strategy for Samsung is to find ways to lower companies’ mobile-computing costs. Many corporations buy smart devices for their employees, but increasingly employees are buying their own and getting reimbursed for a portion of the cost of their data and voice plans. Wagner says Samsung is developing docking stations that would let employees rely on their smartphones’ processing power for their work, eliminating the need for companies to buy them a deskphone or laptop. “As soon as you walk in the room with your phone in your pocket, your monitor, keyboard, and mouse will light up,” Wagner predicts.

Samsung needs to persuade more CIOs to give Android a chance. According to IDC, roughly half of the 125 million iPhones sold by Apple in 2012 were used to run corporate applications, compared with only about 20 percent of Android phones. The biggest obstacle for Samsung is that every Android phone manufacturer uses a slightly different version of the operating system. That means info-tech shops must spend time and money testing each for malware.

With Google showing little desire to solve this problem, Wagner’s team has created a collection of security and management software called SAFE (Samsung for Enterprise) that he says will make all Samsung devices operate the same way. American Airlines is giving Samsung’s Galaxy Note II, a tablet/telephone hybrid, to 17,000 of its flight attendants, who will use it to process payments for onboard purchases of drinks and movies. “The Note was much more enterprise-ready” than other Android devices, says American Airlines CIO Maya Leibman. SAFE lets American disable the device’s camera to protect passengers’ privacy but leaves enough imaging capability to scan bar codes.

Wagner won’t reveal his group’s enterprise sales, but SAFE impressed Samsung’s brass enough that the company will install SAFE products available in Canada, Europe, and South Korea. The company says it’s adding hundreds of new corporate clients each quarter and has recently launched its first corporate-focused ad campaign, with airport ads promising “The Next Big Thing in Business.”

“Some of our partners are calling it Sam-droid,” says Kenneth Daniels, senior director of strategy alliances. “I like that.” Still, Samsung has far to go to prove itself a bona fide corporate power. “They are newbies in the enterprise game,” says Forrester Research (FORR) analyst Frank Gillett. The company is known for high-volume manufacturing efficiency, not for the software expertise and customer support big companies expect. It also has work to do in getting the word out about its new initiatives, says Matt Wallach, co-founder of Veeva Systems, a maker of software for pharmaceutical salespeople. “I asked around,” he says, “and nobody here has even heard of SAFE.”

The bottom line: Samsung aims to pick up enterprise business from RIM and offer better service than Apple and other rivals.

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Japan votes in election seen returning LDP to power

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan voted on Sunday in an election expected to return the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to power after a three-year hiatus, giving ex-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe a chance to push his hawkish security agenda and radical economic recipe.

Polls opened at 0700 a.m. (1700 ET) and will close at 8 p.m. (0600 ET), when major TV broadcasters will issue exit polls forecasting results.

An LDP win would usher in a government committed to a tough stance in a territorial row with China, a pro-nuclear power energy policy despite last year’s Fukushima disaster and a potentially risky prescription for hyper-easy monetary policy and big fiscal spending to beat deflation and tame a strong yen.

Media surveys have forecast the LDP will win a big majority in parliament’s powerful 480-seat lower house, just three years after a devastating defeat that ended more than 50 years of almost non-stop rule by the business-friendly party. However, many voters remained undecided just days before the vote, the polls showed.

Together with a small ally, Abe’s LDP could even gain the two-thirds majority needed to break through a policy deadlock that has plagued successive governments for half a decade.

Abe, 58, who quit abruptly as premier in 2007 after a troubled year in office, has been talking tough in a row with China over uninhabited isles in the East China Sea, although some experts say he may temper his hard line with pragmatism once in office.

The soft-spoken grandson of a prime minister, who would become Japan’s seventh premier in six years, Abe also wants to loosen the limits of a 1947 pacifist constitution on the military, so Japan can play a bigger global security role.

The LDP, which promoted atomic energy during its decades-long reign, is expected to be friendly to nuclear utilities, although deep public safety concerns remain a barrier to business as usual for the industry.

ECONOMY IN DOLDRUMS

Abe has called for “unlimited” monetary easing and big spending on public works – for decades a centerpiece of the LDP’s policies and criticized by many as wasteful pork barrel – to rescue the economy from its fourth recession since 2000.

Many economists say that prescription for “Abenomics” could create temporary growth and enable the government to go ahead with a planned initial sales tax rise in 2014 to help curb a public debt now twice the size of gross domestic product.

But it looks unlikely to cure deeper ills or spark sustainable growth, and risks triggering a market backlash if investors decide Japan has lost control of its finances.

Japan’s economy has been stuck in the doldrums for decades, its population ageing fast and big corporate brands faltering, making “Japan Inc” a synonym for decline.

Consumer electronics firms such as Sony Corp are struggling with competition from foreign rivals and burdened by a strong yen, which makes their products cost more overseas.

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda‘s Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) surged to power in a historic victory in 2009 promising to pay more heed to consumers than companies and put politicians, bureaucrats, in charge of policymaking.

Many voters now feel the DPJ pledges were honored in the breach as the novice party struggled to govern and to cope with last year’s huge earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster and then pushed through an unpopular sales tax increase with LDP help.

Voter distaste for both major parties has spawned a clutch of new parties including the right-leaning Japan Restoration Party founded by popular Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto.

Surveys show the DPJ, hit by a stream of defections, is likely to win fewer than 100 seats, less than a third of its tally in 2009.

(Additional reporting by Leika Kihara, Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)

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Deeper eurozone union ‘agreed’

14 December 2012 Last updated at 08:55 ET

EU leaders have agreed on a roadmap for eurozone integration beyond the deal on centralised banking supervision, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said.

Specific dates have not yet been agreed for the phases of integration.

But the EU summit chairman, Herman Van Rompuy, said a deal should be reached next year on a joint resolution scheme for winding up failed banks.

Mr Van Rompuy’s far-reaching roadmap was the main topic of the two-day Brussels summit.

Speaking after the summit talks, French President Francois Hollande said: “There is no doubt today about the integrity of the eurozone – Europe cannot now be taken by surprise.”

But beyond the banking reforms, he said, Europe must address the problems of unemployment and feeble growth.

The deal to make the European Central Bank (ECB) the chief regulator should pave the way for direct recapitalisation of struggling eurozone banks by the main bailout fund, the 500bn-euro (£406bn; $ 654bn) European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

Spain is especially anxious to get that help for its debt-laden banks.

Direct recapitalisation would help break the “vicious circle” in which bank debts have put a crippling burden on national budgets and led to massive taxpayer-funded bailouts.

However, Germany insists that the ESM should not be used to write off the existing “legacy” debts that have burdened Spain, Greece and the Republic of Ireland. Any ESM loans will be accompanied by tough rules on budget discipline.

June deadline

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Eurozone integration – next steps

• ECB takes charge of bank supervision no later than March 2014


• Joint scheme to wind down broken banks, planned for launch in mid-2014


• Joint deposit guarantee scheme, to prevent bank runs


• Main bailout fund – ESM – gets power to recapitalise banks, under strict conditions


• More centralised economic governance, including enforceable “contracts” between governments and EU Commission


• Tighter co-ordination of national budget targets

At a late-night news conference, Mrs Merkel said “we agreed a roadmap for the future development of the currency union and talked about different aspects of this that are important.

“Above all, it was important to define when we do what.”

Mr Van Rompuy aims to present detailed plans for deeper economic integration in time for the June 2013 EU summit. They would include “mutually agreed contracts for competitiveness and growth between governments and EU institutions”.

Much closer EU scrutiny of national budgets is envisaged, including penalties if governments rack up unsustainable debts.

Contractual agreements on things such as taxation and labour market policy are likely to require changes to the EU treaties – so these are likely to be put off until after the European elections in mid-2014.

The UK, along with Denmark, has a formal opt-out from joining the euro, and will not be part of the new banking union. But the UK’s banking pre-eminence in Europe means it is taking an intense interest in the negotiations.

UK ‘at heart’ of EU

At a news conference after the summit, UK Prime Minister David Cameron said a “multi-faceted” Europe, with countries going at different speeds, did not leave the UK in an uncomfortable position.

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Eurozone banking deal

• ECB to act as chief supervisor of eurozone banks and lenders


• ECB to co-operate closely with national supervisory authorities


• Direct oversight of banks with assets greater than 30bn euros ($ 39bn; £24bn) or with 20% of national GDP


• National supervisors to remain in charge of other tasks


• Non-eurozone countries that wish to take part can make close co-operation arrangements

He stressed that the UK had been “at the heart of decision making” on important issues like sanctions and EU enlargement, and “we wrote the rules of the single market and benefit from it today”.

He said the eurozone countries were committed to protecting the euro, but deeper integration involved big sovereignty issues. “I personally believe Britain won’t ever join, certainly not while I’m prime minister,” he said.

Referring to the EU’s crisis response, he said that “as this plays out it’s changing the European Union… so I believe there are opportunities for others, like Britain, to make changes themselves”.

‘Good example’

New rules on prudent banking are seen as vital to bolster the euro, as bank failures triggered the financial crash.

Under the deal expected to take effect in March 2014, banks with more than 30bn euros ($ 39bn; £24bn) in assets will be placed under ECB oversight.

The ECB would also be able to intervene with smaller lenders and borrowers at the first sign of trouble.

Speaking after the summit, Mr Hollande said Europe had been unprepared for the financial crisis but now had a “crisis management authority” which allowed for the “return of confidence and growth”.

The agreement on a financial transactions tax was, he told reporters, a good example of how countries could be brought into eurozone integration through closer co-operation, signing up to agreements at a later stage.

A non-eurozone country, Lithuania, joined the group adopting a financial transaction tax.

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Eurozone bank deal boosts summit

13 December 2012 Last updated at 12:55 ET

EU leaders have gone into a Brussels summit buoyed by a landmark deal on centralised supervision of eurozone banks, seen as a key integration step.

The European Commission said the leaders must “keep the same sense of urgency” despite an easing of market pressure on the eurozone recently.

The UK government says the new agreement does not threaten the City of London, the EU’s main financial centre.

The leaders will discuss a far-reaching roadmap for eurozone integration.

UK Prime Minister David Cameron said the deal reached by EU finance ministers after all-night talks “protected our interests in the single market”. He praised UK Chancellor George Osborne for “an excellent job”.

The UK, along with Denmark, has a formal opt-out from joining the euro, and will not be part of the new banking union. But the UK’s banking pre-eminence in Europe means it is taking an intense interest in the negotiations.

Mr Cameron said “this change does give us a chance to get a better deal in Europe”.

Continue reading the main story

“Start Quote

This deal is a further example of how the eurozone crisis is carving out a new Europe less from choice but more by the need to survive”

End Quote

Sweden is also outside the euro, and its prime minister, Fredrik Reinfeldt, said the deal would still enable non-eurozone countries to have influence in European banking decisions.

“To start with Sweden will stay outside… Swedish taxpayers don’t want to cover losses in other countries,” he told reporters on arrival at the summit.

Around 200 of the biggest banks will come under the direct oversight of the European Central Bank, which will act as chief supervisor of eurozone banks.

New rules on prudent banking are seen as vital to bolster the euro, as bank failures triggered the financial crash.

The measures are also aimed at preventing banking failures, of the type that happened in Greece and Spain, ending up on the books of eurozone governments.

Eurozone finance ministers also agreed formally to release a long-delayed instalment of 34bn euros (£27bn; $ 44bn) to Greece over the next few days, with a further 15bn later on. Athens has been waiting for the bailout funding since June.

Heavily indebted Italy has also been a worry for investors, and political uncertainty has increased since former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi confirmed that he would run again in a general election expected in February.

At a pre-summit meeting in Brussels conservative leaders voiced support for Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti, some urging him to run for election against Mr Berlusconi, sources who were there said.

Mr Monti, an unelected technocrat, has pushed through some unpopular but long-delayed reforms, including big public service cuts, since taking over from Mr Berlusconi a year ago with the EU’s approval.

‘Core demands’

EU finance ministers finally clinched the banking deal just before dawn on Thursday after 14 hours of talks.

Continue reading the main story

Eurozone banking deal

• ECB to act as chief supervisor of eurozone banks and lenders


• ECB to co-operate closely with national supervisory authorities


• Direct oversight of banks with assets greater than 30bn euros ($ 39bn; £24bn) or with 20% of national GDP


• National supervisors to remain in charge of other tasks


• Non-eurozone countries that wish to take part can make close co-operation arrangements

German Chancellor Angela Merkel welcomed the agreement, telling the Bundestag (lower house of parliament) that Germany’s “core demands” had been secured. “It cannot be praised too highly.”

She has previously warned against rushing into banking union out of concern that Germany would face further financial demands.

Significantly, a large number of French banks will be supervised by the ECB but rather few institutions in Germany will, because of its fragmented banking industry, says the BBC’s Business Editor, Robert Peston.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso hailed the deal as “a crucial and very substantive step towards completion of the banking union”.

‘Significant transfer’

For months, the threshold at which the ECB would act as chief supervisor has been the subject of strained negotiations.

Under the deal expected to take effect in March 2014, banks with more than 30bn euros ($ 39bn; £24bn) in assets will be placed under the oversight of the European Central Bank.

The ECB would also be able to intervene with smaller lenders and borrowers at the first sign of trouble, the BBC’s Europe Editor Gavin Hewitt says.

Europe’s finance ministers have taken another major step towards closer integration, with a significant transfer of authority from national governments to the ECB, he says.

The deal gives the ECB powers to close down eurozone banks that do not follow the rules. It also paves the way for the EU’s main rescue fund to come to the direct aid of struggling banks.

It represents the first stage of a banking union – known as a Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) – which EU leaders believe can be put in place without having to change EU treaties.

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Rebekah Brooks gets £10.8m payoff

12 December 2012 Last updated at 13:48 ET

Rebekah Brooks, the former head of News International, was paid £10.8m after she resigned, it has emerged.

The figure, compensation for loss of office, appeared in the company’s accounts, released on Wednesday.

Mrs Brooks resigned in July 2011 shortly after the News of the World closed because of phone hacking allegations.

The accounts for the year to July 2012 also show the group set aside £17.5m to cover legal fees and damages.

That figure relates to existing claims only, and could rise in the future if it receives more, News International said.

Individuals who have received payments from the company include the parents of the murdered schoolgirl Millie Dowler and the singer Charlotte Church.

Mrs Brooks, who has been charged over alleged payments to police and public officials, was a former editor of the News of the World and the Sun newspaper, and later rose to chief executive of News International.

She appeared at the Old Bailey last week and is due to face trial in September next year over alleged illegal payments to public officials.

Losses

The company said this financial year contained a “high level of uncertainty” due to potential damages and legal costs which may be payable as result of the legal action by those alleging their private messages were intercepted by the News of the World in search of stories.

News International Group is a subsidiary of Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation and owns both the Times titles as well as the Sun newspaper.

Its accounts show it lost £153m in the year to July 2012 compared with a profit of £113m a year earlier.

The group said one of the main causes of the loss, £46.6m, was the closure of the News of the World, which published its last edition in July last year.

More than half of this is legal fees, it said. In addition to that there is the £10.8m loss of office payment and £2.9m in charitable donations from the sale of the last News of the World.

The Times

Separately, the editor of the Times, James Harding, has announced his resignation.

He will leave within a month and is expected to be replaced by Sunday Times editor John Witherow. .

In an address to staff, Mr Harding implied that the decision was not entirely his: “It has been made clear to me that News Corporation would like to appoint a new editor of the Times.

“I have, therefore, agreed to stand down. I called Rupert this morning to offer my resignation and he accepted it,” he said.

Mr Harding could move to Mr Murdoch’s publishing firm, Harper Collins, BBC business editor Robert Peston says.

Rupert Murdoch said: “James has been a distinguished editor for the Times, attracting talented staff to the paper and leading it through difficult times.

“I have great respect for him as a colleague and friend, and truly hope we can work together again.”

Mr Harding, who is 43, was one of the youngest journalists to take charge of the paper.

Split

The change at the Times newspaper comes hard on the heels of another move at the top of Mr Murdoch’s company.

Last week, the chief executive of News International, Tom Mockridge, who had taken over from Mrs Brooks in July 2011, said he would leave his role before the end of the month.

Rupert Murdoch, chairman and chief executive of News Corp, said that Mr Mockridge’s decision was “absolutely and entirely his own”.

News Corp plans to split into two businesses, separating its newspaper and book publishing interests from its now dominant and much more profitable TV and film enterprises.

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